Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 25.490020 28.147812 31.160916 34.874974 39.395585 44.810598 51.936218
2025-03-02 21.637992 25.019572 29.182314 34.842005 42.616619 53.417023 70.644778
2025-03-09 18.984658 22.662420 27.464112 34.499564 45.181194 62.181736 95.449742
2025-03-16 17.070573 20.863411 26.040856 34.092244 47.402819 71.460477 130.303566
2025-03-23 15.633168 19.461267 24.875174 33.719591 49.473960 81.634396 182.960672
2025-03-30 14.538081 18.376705 23.970121 33.509457 51.706879 93.666307 273.869475
2025-04-06 13.512944 17.269844 22.864675 32.718957 52.552322 103.252121 406.163011
2025-04-13 13.145573 17.076813 23.126058 34.326063 58.922783 134.630010 1270.293356
2025-04-20 12.460490 16.334558 22.406786 33.979507 60.782176 154.389445 6019.522055
2025-04-27 11.961328 15.831608 22.018537 34.188318 64.127889 186.675591 NaN
2025-05-04 11.542911 15.417667 21.729638 34.535482 68.045434 232.778156 NaN
2025-05-11 11.126946 14.974201 21.340438 34.600213 71.245218 287.954985 NaN
2025-05-18 10.659642 14.424139 20.725548 34.110128 72.692635 340.870488 NaN
2025-05-25 10.305495 14.036502 20.368884 34.145153 76.028227 444.357862 NaN
2025-06-01 9.939350 13.606352 19.897337 33.844360 78.128879 566.712588 NaN
2025-06-08 9.594513 13.191849 19.421288 33.463539 79.842871 732.887917 NaN
2025-06-15 9.280605 12.812225 18.981500 33.108463 81.588253 990.983469 NaN
2025-06-22 9.008409 12.488862 18.624175 32.907471 83.995202 1508.132329 NaN
2025-06-29 8.693665 12.078013 18.071275 32.141680 83.563503 1945.464480 NaN
2025-07-06 8.646188 12.122218 18.401510 33.701410 95.453882 104108.128617 NaN
2025-07-13 8.409556 11.825913 18.038196 33.365601 97.440339 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.239468 11.638165 17.878935 33.568246 102.816289 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.091449 11.482113 17.772279 33.904950 109.531884 NaN NaN